- Graph (2 exercices)
- Probabilistic graph (6 exercices)
- Weighted and probabilistic graph (1 exercice)
sumer
bio
ı.
b
Give
P
0
the
probabilistic
state
in
2013
and
the
transi-tion
matrix
M
corresponding
to
this
graph,
with
the
vertices
B
and
C
ranked
in
that
order.
c
We
give
the
matrix
M
2
:
M
2
=
0.825
0.175
0.2625
0.7375
Specifying
the
calculation
method,
determine
the
prob-ability
that
the
customer
chosen
in
2015
is
a
ˇ
bio
ı
con-sumer.
d
Determine
the
stable
state
b
c
of
the
probabilistic
graph.
2
The
supermarket
manager
claims
that,
in
the
near
fu-ture,
more
than
half
his
customers
will
have
the
profile
ˇ
organic
consumer
ı.
a
Copy
and
complete
the
following
algorithm
so
that
at
the
end
of
its
execution
the
variable
N
has
the
value
of
the
minimum
number
of
years
for
the
director’s
state-ment
to
be
verified
:
N
←
0
B
←
0.2
C
←
0.8
As
long
as
...
B
←
0.9
×
B
+
0.15
×
C
C
←
1
−
B
N
←
N+1
End
As
long
as
E.6401
Alice
takes
part
in
an
archery
competition;
she
makes
several
arrow
throws.
When
she
hits
the
target
on
one
throw,
the
probability
that
she
will
hit
the
target
on
the
next
throw
is
equal
to
0.9
.
When
she
has
missed
the
target
on
one
throw,
Alice
becomes
unfocused
and
the
probability
that
she
will
hit
the
target
on
the
next
throw
is
equal
to
0.4
.
It
is
assumed
that
on
the
first
throw
she
has
as
much
chance
of
hitting
the
target
as
of
missing
it.
For
any
strictly
positive
natural
number
n
,
note
:
a
n
the
probability
of
Alice
hitting
the
target
on
the
n
-th
throw
;
b
n
the
probability
that
Alice
misses
the
target
on
the
n
-th
throw
;
P
n
=
a
n
b
n
the
row
matrix
translating
the
proba-bilistic
state
at
the
n
-th
throw.
1
a
Represent
the
situation
by
a
probabilistic
graph
with
vertices
A
and
B
(
A
representing
the
state
ˇ
Alice
reaches
the
cible
ı
and
B
state
ˇ
Alice
misses
her
cible
ı)
.
b
State
the
transition
matrix
M
associated
with
this
graph.
The
vertices
A
and
B
will
be
taken
in
order
(
A
;
B
)
.
c
Justify
that
:
P
1
=
0.5
0.5
;
P
2
=
0.65
0.35
2
a
Show
that,
for
any
strictly
positive
integer
n
:
a
n
+1
=
0.9
·
a
n
+
0.4
·
b
n
b
Deduce
that,
for
any
strictly
positive
integer
n
:
a
n
+1
=
0.5
·
a
n
+
0.4
3
a
Consider
below
the
function
f
of
an
algorithm
tak-ing
as
parameter
the
argument
n
which
is
a
natural
number
greater
than
or
equal
to
2
.
Function
f(n)
a
←
0.5
b
←
0.5
For
i
ranging
from
2
to
n
a
←
...
×
a+
...
b
←
1
−
a
End
To
Renvoyer
(
a
;
b)
Complete
the
function
f
so
that
at
the
end
of
its
exe-cution,
the
pair
returned
by
this
function
indicates
the
probabilistic
state
at
the
n
-th
throw.
b
Determine
the
pair
of
values
returned
when
this
func-tion
is
called
with
the
argument
n
=5
.
4
a
Consider
the
sequence
u
n
defined
for
any
strcite-ment
positive
natural
number
n
by:
u
n
=
a
n
−
0.8
.
Show
that
the
sequence
u
n
is
a
geometric
sequence
whose
reason
and
first
term
will
be
specified.
b
Give
the
expression
of
u
n
as
a
function
of
n
,
then
de-duce
that
for
any
strictly
positive
natural
number
n
:
a
n
=
0.8
−
0.3
×
0.5
n
−
1
.
c
In
the
long
term,
what
can
we
think
about
the
proba-bility
of
Alice
hitting
the
target?
d
By
what
other
method
would
we
have
found
the
pre-vious
result?
https://chingmath.fr
chapExoCorrec/6401
sacados/6401
E.6403
To
satisfy
its
members,
a
sports
club
has
introduced
three
learning
levels
:
DEBUTANT
(D),
CONFIRMED
(C)
and
EXPERT
(E)
As
of
1
er
September
2012
,
at
registration,
the
club
had
:
30
%
of
beginners
;
50
%
of
confirmed
;
20
%
of
experts.
From
one
year
to
the
next,
we
note
that
:
among
beginner-level
members,
40
%
remain
at
this
level
and
60
%
move
up
to
the
confirmed
level;
among
confirmed
members,
60
%
remain
at
this
level
and
40
%
move
up
to
expert
level;
among
expert
level
members,
80
%
remain
at
this
level,
10
%
move
down
to
the
confirmed
level,
and
the
remain-ing
10
%
prefer
to
return
to
the
basics
at
the
beginner
level.
We
consider
that
there
are
no
newcomers
or
departures
in
the
club.
Let
P
n
=
d
n
c
n
e
n
be
the
row
matrix
describing
the
probabilistic
state
of
the
distribution
among
the
three
learn-ing
levels
D
,
C
and
E
at
1
September
1
in
the
year
2012+
n
for
any
natural
number
n
.
1
a
Give
without
justification
the
matrix
P
0
.
b
Translate
the
situation
by
a
probabilistic
graph
of
ver-tices
D
,
C
and
E
.
We
give
the
square
matrix
M
of
transition
respecting
the
or-der
D
,
C
,
E
of
the
vertices.
M
=
0.4
0
.
6
0
0
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.1
0
.
8
In
the
rest
of
the
exercise,
we
can
use
the
following
results
(results
rounded
to
the
thousandth)
:
M
5
=
0.085
0.331
0.584
0.097
0.293
0.610
0.104
0.298
0.598
M
10
=
0.100
0.299
0.601
0.100
0.300
0.600
0.100
0.300
0.600
2
In
this
matrix,
we
read
0
.
6
and
0
.
8
in
bold
italics.
a
Specify,
using
a
sentence,
what
these
two
values
corre-spond
to
in
relation
to
the
situation
studied.
b
Calculate
P
1
.
c
Determine
the
predicted
distribution,
in
percentages,
of
members
in
this
sports
club
at
1
er
September
2017
.
Results
will
be
given
to
the
nearest
0.1
%
.
3
a
By
calculating
P
10
,
make
a
conjecture
about
the
ma-trix
P
corresponding
to
the
stable
probabilistic
state.
b
Verify
this
conjecture.
c
What
conclusion
can
be
drawn
for
the
distribution
of
members?
E.6404
In
the
first
week
of
the
year,
the
communications
manager
of
a
large
company
asks
employees
to
decide
on
a
new
logo,
with
the
choice
to
be
made
by
a
vote
at
the
end
of
the
year.
Two
logos,
designated
A
and
B
respectively,
are
put
to
the
vote.
At
the
presentation,
which
takes
place
in
the
first
week
of
the
year,
24
%
of
employees
favor
the
A
logo
and
all
other
employees
favor
the
B
logo.
Discussions
between
employees
evolve
this
breakdown
throughout
the
year.
Thus,
9
%
of
employees
in
favor
of
the
A
logo
change
their
minds
the
following
week,
and
16
%
of
employees
in
favor
of
the
B
logo
change
their
minds
the
following
week.
For
any
n
,
n
1
,
we
note
:
a
n
the
probability
of
an
employee
favoring
the
A
logo
in
the
week
n
;
b
n
the
probability
of
an
employee
favoring
the
B
logo
in
week
n
;
P
n
the
matrix
a
n
b
n
translating
the
probabilistic
state
the
week
n
.
We
therefore
have,
for
any
n
1
:
a
n
+
b
n
=
1
;
P
1
=
0.24
0.76
1
Translate
the
situation
into
a
probabilistic
graph
with
vertices
A
and
B
.
2
Determine
the
transition
matrix
M
of
this
graph,
arrang-ing
the
vertices
in
alphabetical
order.
3
a
Using
the
relationship
P
n
+1
=
P
n
×
M
,
express,
for
any
n
1
,
a
n
+1
as
a
function
of
a
n
and
b
n
.
b
Deduce
that
for
any
n
1
:
a
n
+1
=
0.75
·
a
n
+
0.16
.
4
Using
the
calculator,
give,
without
justification,
the
prob-ability
to
within
0.001
that
an
employee
will
be
in
favor
of
the
A
logo
the
week
4
.
5
We
note
P
=
a
b
the
stable
state
of
the
employee
dis-tribution.
a
Determine
a
system
of
two
equations
that
a
and
b
must
verify.
b
Solve
the
system
obtained
in
the
previous
question.
c
The
stable
state
is
assumed
to
be
P
=
0.64
0.36
.
Interpret
the
result.
6
Consider
the
following
algorithm:
A
←
0.24
N
←
0
As
long
as
A<0.639
N
←
N+1
A
←
0.75
×
A+0.16
End
As
long
as
After
running
the
algorithm,
give,
an
interpretation
of
the
value
of
the
variable
N
(you
are
not
asked
to
give
the
value
of
N
at
the
end
of
execution
of
the
algorithm)
.
https://chingmath.fr
chapExoCorrec/6403
sacados/6403
chapExoCorrec/6404
sacados/6404
E.6408
The
websites
A
,
B
,
C
have
links
between
them.
A
surfer
connected
to
one
of
these
three
sites
can,
every
few
minutes,
either
stay
there
or
use
a
link
to
one
of
the
other
two
sites
:
For
a
surfer
connected
to
A
,
the
probability
of
using
the
link
to
B
is
0.2
and
that
of
using
the
link
to
C
is
0.2
.
For
an
Internet
user
connected
to
B
,
the
probability
of
using
the
link
to
A
is
0.1
and
that
of
using
the
link
to
C
is
0.4
.
For
an
Internet
user
connected
to
C
,
the
probability
of
using
the
link
to
A
is
0.2
but
there
is
no
direct
link
to
B
.
The
unit
of
time
is
the
minute,
and
at
an
instant
t
=0
,
the
number
of
visitors
is,
respectively
on
A
,
B
and
C
:
100
,
0
and
0
.
We
represent
the
distribution
of
Internet
users
on
the
three
sites
after
t
minutes
by
a
matrix
N
t
;
thus,
N
0
=
100
0
0
.
It
is
assumed
that
there
are
no
disconnections
during
the
hour
of
(from
t
=0
to
t
=60
)
or
new
Internet
visitors.
1
Represent
the
probabilistic
graph
of
vertices
A
,
B
and
C
corresponding
to
the
situation
described.
2
Write
the
transition
matrix
M
associated
with
this
graph
(in
order
A
,
B
,
C
)
.
3
We
give
:
M
2
=
0.42
0.22
0.36
0.19
0.27
0.54
0.28
0.04
0.68
M
20
≈
0.3125
0.125
0.5625
0.3125
0.125
0.5625
0.3125
0.125
0.5625
Calculate
N
2
.
Interpret
the
result
obtained.
4
Calculate
N
0
×
M
20
.
Conjecture
the
steady-state
value
and
interpret
the
answer.
5
One
of
the
Internet
users
transmits
a
virus
to
any
site
he
visits.
He
initially
connects
to
C
and
starts
browsing.
At
time
t
=0
,
site
C
is
therefore
infected.
a
What
is
the
probability
that
at
time
t
=1
site
A
is
infected?
b
What
is
the
probability
that
at
time
t
=2
all
three
sites
are
infected?
E.6421
In
one
country,
only
two
mobile
operators
SAFIR
and
TECIM
offer
4G
(data
transmission
standard)
.
One
study
showed
that
from
one
year
to
the
next
:
41
%
of
customers
of
operator
SAFIR
leave
it
for
opera-tor
TECIM
;
9
%
of
the
TECIM
operator’s
customers
leave
it
for
the
SAFIR
operator;
No
customers
give
up
using
4G.
This
situation
can
be
modeled
by
a
probabilistic
graph
G
with
vertices
S
and
T
où
:
S
is
the
event
ˇ
the
4G
user
is
a
customer
of
the
operator
SAFIR
ı
;
T
is
the
event
ˇ
the
4G
user
is
a
customer
of
the
operator
TECIM
ı
;
We
note
P
n
=
s
n
t
n
the
row
matrix
of
the
probabilistic
state
for
the
year
2014+
n
.
In
this
exercise,
we
propose
to
find
out
whether
the
operator
TECIM
will
achieve
the
objective
of
having
as
customers
at
least
80
%
of
the
population
using
4G.
Part
A
1
Draw
the
probabilistic
graph
G
.
2
We
admit
that
the
transition
matrix
of
the
graph
G
considering
the
vertices
in
the
order
S
and
T
is
M
=
0.59
0.41
0.09
0.91
We
denote
P
=
a
b
the
row
matrix
corresponding
to
the
stable
state
of
this
graph
G
.
a
Show
that
the
numbers
a
and
b
are
solutions
of
the
system
:
0.41
·
a
−
0.09
·
b
=
0
a
+
b
=
1
b
Solve
the
previous
system.
3
Assume
a
=0.18
and
b
=0.82
.
Determine,
with
justification,
whether
the
TECIM
oper-ator
can
expect
to
achieve
its
objective.
Part
B
In
2014
,
we
know
that
35
%
of
4G
users
are
customers
of
op-erator
SAFIR
and
65
%
are
customers
of
operator
TECIM.
Thus
:
P
0
=
0.35
0.65
.
1
Determine
the
distribution
of
4G
customers
after
2
years.
2
Show
that,
for
any
natural
number
n
,
we
have
:
t
n
+1
=
0.5
·
t
n
+
0.41
3
To
find
out
how
many
years
it
will
take
the
TECIM
op-erator
to
reach
his
goal,
we
first
developed
the
algorithm
below.
Copy
and
complete
the
lines
‘
.4
and
‘
.5
so
that
at
the
end
of
execution
the
value
of
the
variable
N
gives
the
expected
result.
‘
.1
T
←
0.65
‘
.2
N
←
0
‘
.3
As
long
as
T<0.80
‘
.4
T
←
...
‘
.5
N
←
...
‘
.6
End
As
long
as
4
Consider
the
sequence
u
n
defined
for
any
natural
num-ber
n
by:
u
n
=
t
n
−
0.82
.
a
Show
that
the
sequence
u
n
is
a
geometric
sequence
of
reason
0.5
.
Specify
its
first
term.
b
Deduce
that
:
t
n
=
−
0.17
×
0.5
n
+
0.82
c
Solve
in
the
set
of
natural
numbers
the
inequation
:
−
0.17
×
0.5
n
+
0.82
0.80
.
d
Interpret
this
result
in
the
context
of
the
statement.
https://chingmath.fr
chapExoCorrec/6408
sacados/6408
chapExoCorrec/6421
sacados/6421
Liban
Mai 2015
ABCDEFGHI7162113181581285651218713719
3.
Weighted
and
probabilistic
graph
E.6411
A
study
is
carried
out
each
winter
on
a
population
made
up
of
people
who
can
practice
downhill
skiing
or
snowboarding.
The
student
reveals
that
:
If
a
person
practices
downhill
skiing,
then
the
probability
that
he
or
she
will
practice
snowboarding
the
following
winter
is
equal
to
0.2
.
If
a
person
practices
snowboarding,
then
the
probability
that
he
or
she
will
practice
downhill
skiing
the
following
winter
is
equal
to
0.3
.
We
note
S
the
state
:
ˇ
the
person
goes
downhill
skiing
ı
and
S
the
state
:
ˇ
the
person
practices
snowboard
ı.
We
also
note
for
any
natural
number
n
:
p
n
the
probability
that
a
person
will
practice
downhill
skiing
in
the
n
-th
winter
;
q
n
the
probability
of
a
person
snowboarding
in
the
n
-th
winter
;
P
n
=
p
n
q
n
the
row
matrix
giving
the
probabilistic
state
of
the
system
during
the
n
-th
winter.
The
initial
population
is
assumed
to
comprise
only
downhill
skiers,
so
we
have
P
0
=
1
0
.
Part
A
1
Represent
the
situation
using
a
probabilistic
graph
of
ver-tices
S
and
S
.
2
a
Give
the
transition
matrix
M
of
this
probabilistic
graph.
b
Calculate
M
2
.
c
Determine
probabilistic
state
P
2
.
3
Show
that
for
any
natural
number
n
,
we
have
:
p
n
+1
=
0.5
·
p
n
+
0.3
.
4
Consider
the
following
algorithm:
Variables
‘
.
1
J
and
N
are
natural
numbers
‘
.
2
p
is
a
real
number
Entrée
‘
.
3
Seize
N
Initialization
‘
.
4
p
takes
the
value
1
Traitement
‘
.
5
For
J
ranging
from
1
to
N
‘
.
6
p
takes
the
value
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
‘
.
7
Fin
Pour
Sortie
‘
.
8
Afficher
p
Copy
and
complete
the
line
6
of
this
algorithm
to
obtain
the
probability
p
n
.
Part
B
Consider,
for
any
natural
number
n
,
the
event
S
n
:
ˇ
the
per-son
practices
downhill
skiing
during
the
n
-th
hiver
ı.
The
probability
of
the
event
S
n
is
denoted
p
S
n
.
We
there-fore
have
:
p
n
=
p
S
n
.
We
know
from
part
A
that
for
any
natural
number
n
:
p
n
+1
=
0.5
·
p
n
+
0.3
Let
u
n
be
the
sequence
defined
for
any
natural
number
n
by:
u
n
=
p
n
−
0.6
.
1
Show
that
the
sequence
u
n
is
a
geometric
sequence
of
reason
0.5
and
specify
the
value
of
u
0
.
2
Deduce
the
expression
of
u
n
as
a
function
of
n
and
then
the
expression
of
p
n
as
a
function
of
n
.
3
Determine
the
limit
of
the
sequence
p
n
and
interpret
the
result.
Part
C
Part
of
the
ski
area
is
represented
by
the
graph
below.
Vertex
A
represents
the
top
of
the
ski
runs
and
vertex
I
rep-resents
the
bottom.
Vertices
B
,
C
,
D
,
E
F
,
G
,
and
H
represent
crossing
points.
Each
of
the
edges
is
weighted
by
the
distance,
in
hundred
meters,
between
two
vertices.
Using
Dijkstra’s
algorithm,
determine
the
minimum
distance
to
connect
vertex
A
to
vertex
I
.
https://chingmath.fr
chapExoCorrec/6411
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