Outside the high school program / Sets, combinatorial analysis and probability 18 exercises (including 15 corrected)

a
ChingQuizz : 2 exercises available for Quizz assessment : 1. Old annals - matching E.3154 Part A A die in the shape of a regular tetrahedron is provided, pos-sessing one blue face, two red faces and one green face ; the die is assumed to be perfectly balanced. A game consists in making two successive and independent throws of this die. On each throw, the color of the hidden face is noted. Consider the following events : E is the event ˇ at the end of a game, the two faces noted are vertes ı ; F is the event ˇ at the end of a game, the two noted faces are of the same couleur ı. 1 Calculate the probabilities of events E and F and the probability of E knowing F . 2 Ten identical and independent games are played. Calculate the probability of obtaining at least twice the event F during these ten games (an approximate decimal value will be given to the nearest 10 3 ) Part B We want to know whether the die used can be considered perfectly balanced. To do this, we number the four faces of this die from 1 to 4, then we roll, this die 160 times noting the number n i of times each face is hidden ; we obtain the following results : face i 1 2 3 4 effectif n i 30 48 46 32 We note f i the frequency relative to face n i and d 2 obs the real 4 i =1 f i 1 4 2 . We then simulate 1000 times the experiment consisting of drawing a number at random 160 times from the set 1 ; 2 ; 3 ; 4 then, for each simulation, we calculate d 2 = 4 i =1 F i 1 4 2 , where F i is the frequency of occurrence of the number i . The 9 ième decile of the statistical series of 1000 values of d 2 is equal to 0.0098 . In view of the experiment performed and at the risk of 10 % , can the die be considered perfectly balanced? E.3199 1 At a shooting range, a shooter fires successive shots at a balloon in order to pop it. With each shot, there is a probability of 0.2 of popping the balloon. The shooter stops when the balloon is popped. The successive shots are assumed to be independent. a What is the probability that after two shots the bal-loon will still be intact? b What is the probability that two shots are enough to puncture the balloon? c What is the probability p n that n shots are enough to puncture the balloon? d For what values of n do we have : p n > 0.99 ? 2 This shooter participates in the following game: First, he rolls a regular tetrahedral die with sides num-bered from 1 to 4 (the side obtained with such a die is the hidden side) ; let k be the number on the face obtained. The shooter then goes to the shooting range and is al-lowed k shots to pop the balloon. Show that, if the die is well balanced, the probability of popping the balloon is equal to 0.4096 (a weighted tree can be used) . 3 The shooter decides to test the tetrahedral die to see if it is well balanced or if it is loaded. To do this, he rolls the die 200 times and obtains the following table : Face k 1 2 3 4 Number of outputs on the front panel k 58 49 52 41 a Calculate the frequencies of outputs f k observed for each of the faces. b We set d 2 = 4 k =1 f k 1 4 2 . Calculate d 2 . c We now perform 1 000 simulations of 200 throws of a well-balanced tetrahedral die and calculate the num-ber d 2 for each simulation. For the statistical series of 1 000 values of d 2 , we obtain the following results : Min. D 1 Q 1 Médiane Q 3 D 9 Max. 0.001 24 0.001 92 0.002 35 0, 002 81 0.003 45 0.004 52 0, 010 15 At the risk of 10 % , can we consider this die to be loaded? https://chingmath.fr sacados/3154 France Septembre 2005 3 points sacados/3199 France Juin 2006 5 points
R1R2R3R4B0,70,3 E.3219 For each of the three questions, full marks will be awarded if the answer is correctly justified. The three questions are independent. 1 The probability of an individual in a population having disease M is equal to 0.003 . A screening test for this disease has been developed ; with this test, we can say that : if a person has disease M , the test is positive in 50 % of cases ; the test is positive for 3 % of healthy people. What is the probability, to the nearest 0.01 , of having disease M when the test is positive? a 0.95 b 0.9 c 0.15 d 0.05 2 Consider a nail board of this type. A ball B is thrown from the top of the board and falls into one of four containers labeled R 1 , R 2 , R 3 , and R 4 . At each stage, the ball has a probability of 0.3 of going to the left and 0.7 of going to the right (left and right relative to the observer) . Let p 1 be the probability that the ball falls into bin R 1 or bin R 3 and p 2 be the probability that the ball falls into bin R 2 or bin R 4 . What are the values of p 1 and p 2 ? a p 1 = p 2 =0.5 b p 1 =0.216 and p 2 =0.784 c p 1 =0.468 and p 2 =0.532 d p 1 =0.468 and p 2 =0.432 3 The first 1000 decimal places of ı are given here by a computer : 1415926535 8979323846 2643383279 5028841971 6939937510 5820974944 5923078164 0628620899 8628034825 3421170679 8214808651 3233066470 9384460959 0582235725 3594085234 8111745028 4102701930 5211055596 4462294895 4930301964 4288109756 6593344612 8475648233 7867831652 7120190914 5648566923 4603486534 5432664825 3393607260 2491412737 2450700660 6315580574 8815209209 6282925409 1715364367 8925903600 1133053054 8820466525 3841469519 4151160943 3057270365 7595919530 9218611738 1932611793 1051185480 7446297996 2749567355 8857527240 9122793318 3011949129 8336733624 4065664308 6025394946 3952247371 9070217986 0943702770 5392171762 9317675238 4674818467 6691051320 0056812714 5263560827 7857753427 9778900917 3637178721 4684409012 2495343054 6549585371 0507922796 8925892354 2019956112 1290219608 6403441815 9813629774 7713099605 1870721134 9999998372 9780499510 5973173281 6096318599 0244594553 4690830264 2522300253 3446850352 6193110017 1010003137 8387528865 8753320830 1420617177 6691473035 9825349042 8755460731 1595620633 8235378759 3751957781 8577805321 7122600661 3001927876 6111959092 1642019894 By grouping these decimal places into values between 0 and 9 , we obtain the following table : Valeurs 0 1 2 3 4 Occurrences 93 116 102 102 94 Valeurs 5 6 7 8 9 Occurrences 97 94 95 101 106 Using a table, we simulated 1000 experiments of 1000 random draws of a number between 0 and 9 . For each experiment, we calculated d 2 = k =9 k =0 f k 0.1 2 , where f k represents the observed frequency of digit k for the experiment. We then obtained a statistical series for which we calcu-lated the first and ninth deciles ( d 1 and d 9 ), the first and third quartiles ( A 1 and Q 3 ) and the median ( Me ) : d 1 = 000.422 ; Q 1 = 0.000 582 ; M e = 0.000 822 Q 3 = 0.00 1136 ; d 9 = 0.00145 By calculating d 2 on the first 1000 decimal places of ı , we obtain : a 0.000 456 b 0.004 56 c 0.000 314 4 A statistician who discovers the table and does not know that these are the decimal places of ı hypothesizes that the series is the result of independent random draws fol-lowing an equipartite distribution. He takes a 10 % risk of rejecting this hypothesis when it is true. Does he ac-cept this hypothesis? a Yes b No c He cannot conclude 2. TD1 L4 E.8074 Consider an urn in which there are five green, four blue and one red token. The fol-lowing random experiment consists of drawing at random a token from the urn and noting its color. 1 Describe the universe Ω of this experiment. 2 Are the outcomes of this random experiment equiproba- https://chingmath.fr sacados/3219 Antilles-Guyane Septembre 2004 5 points R1R2R3R4B0,70,3 chapExoCorrec/8074 sacados/8074
ble? 3 Name an elementary event and a non-elementary event associated with this experiment. E.8075 Let A , B and C be three events in a universe Ω . Translate the following events into ensemblistic terms (using only the symbols for union, inter-section and complementary passage, as well as A , B and C ) : a Only B comes true. b A and C come true, but not B . c Two or fewer of A , B and C come true. E.8076 Let be a universe Ω and let be three events A , B and C of Ω . Translate into ensemblis-tic terms (using only the symbols for union, intersection and complementary passage, as well as and) the following events : 1 Only A occurs. 2 A and B come true, but not C . 3 all three events come true. 4 at least one of the three events comes true. 5 at least two of the three events come true. 6 none come true. 7 at most one of the three comes true. 8 exactly two of the three come true. E.8077 Two cards are drawn simul-taneously from a deck of 32 cards. Consider the following events : A : ˇ both cards are carreaux ı B : ˇ there is a king and a sept ı C : ˇ both cards are nombres ı What do the following events represent? a B b A B c C B d A C B E.8078 Two events A and B are such that : P A = 0.35 ; P B = 0.4 ; P A B = 0.1 Calculer P A B 3. TD2 L4 E.8079 A bag contains 6 balls, indis-tinguishable by touch, numbered : 1 ; 1 ; 2 ; 3 ; 3 ; 4 A ball is drawn at random and its number noted. We name X the random variable which, to a drawn ball asso-ciates its number to it. Determine the probability law of the random variable X . E.8080 Thirteen people gather at a table to have a bite to eat. In how many different ways can they sit on the thirteen armchairs if : 1 these armchairs are on the same side of a rectangular table (think of Da Vinci’s Last Supper) ? 2 these chairs are arranged around a table with a chairper-son’s seat and six chairs on either side (think of future professional meetings) ? 3 these armchairs are arranged regularly around a round table, assuming that no armchair stands out from the others (think of a feast among diehard Gauls) ? E.8081 A drawer contains 5 distinct pairs of black shoes, 3 distinct pairs of green shoes and 2 distinct pairs of red shoes. We choose 2 shoes at random. 1 How many possible draws are there? 2 How many draws contain two shoes of the same color? 3 How many draws contain a left foot and a right foot? 4 How many draws contain a left foot and a right foot of the same color? E.8082 An urn contains 5 red balls and 3 black balls indistinguishable to the touch. A ball is taken at random, its color observed and then returned to the urn, also adding a ball of the same color as the one taken. A second ball is then taken at random and the color of the second ball observed. 1 What is the probability of drawing a red ball on the first draw? 2 Knowing that a red ball was drawn on the first sampling, what is the probability of drawing a black ball on the second sampling? 3 Calculate the probability of drawing a red ball and a black ball in this experiment. 4 Verify that the probability of drawing a red ball on the first draw knowing that a red ball was drawn on the sec-ond draw is equal to 2 3 . 4. TD3 L4 E.8083 Consider a random variable X that follows the binomial distribution with parameters 20 and 0.4 . Results will be given to the nearest 0.001 . 1 Calculate P X =3 and P X =11 . https://chingmath.fr chapExoCorrec/8075 sacados/8075 chapExoCorrec/8076 sacados/8076 chapExoCorrec/8077 sacados/8077 chapExoCorrec/8078 sacados/8078 chapExoCorrec/8079 sacados/8079 chapExoCorrec/8080 sacados/8080 chapExoCorrec/8081 sacados/8081 chapExoCorrec/8082 sacados/8082 chapExoCorrec/8083 sacados/8083
02468101214161820C2C1C3 2 Calculate P X 2 ; P X 18 (round this probability to the nearest 0.000 001 ) . E.8084 An urn contains 30 tokens, of which 6 are red. Each day a person randomly draws a token from the urn and then puts it back in. Consider a positive non-zero integer n and denote X the random vari-able corresponding to the number of red tokens drawn after n consecutive days. 1 What is the law of X ? Justify. If necessary, values in the following questions will be rounded to the nearest thousandth. 2 What is the probability that on 10 consecutive days, the person draws 4 red tokens? at least 1 red token? 3 What must be the minimum number of consecutive days for the probability of no red tokens drawn to be less than 0.001 ? E.8085 A transport company wishes to optimize controls in order to limit fraud. This company carries out a study based on 2 journeys per day during the 20 working days of a month, i.e. a total of 40 journeys. It is assumed that the checks are independent of each other and that the probability of any traveler being checked is equal to p . A journey costs 10 euros and in the event of fraud the fine is 100 euros (we only pay the fine and not the journey in addi-tion) . Theo systematically cheats on the 40 journeys studied. We denote X the random variable that counts the number of trips where Theo was checked. 1 It is assumed that p =0.5 . The probability that Theo will be checked at most 2 times is : a 0.2 b 0.97 c 7 × 10 10 d 2 × 10 1 2 Let Z be the random variable giving the algebraic gain made by Theo over the 40 journeys. Justify that Z =400 100 · X then calculate E ( Z ) . 3 The value of p is no longer known. For what values of p is systematic fraud favorable to Theo? Justify. We will give the set of values of p fulfilling this condition in the form of an interval whose bounds will be rounded to the nearest hundredth. 5. TD4 L4 E.8086 Ten solar panels are installed on the roof of a house located in a region with regular sun-shine and produce electricity. We denote by Y the random variable which, on each day, associates the electrical produc-tion supplied by these 10 panels... expressed in kWh . The variable Y follows the binomial distribution with param-eters =9 and =3 . 1 What is the probability (to within 10 2 ) that daily pro-duction will be between 6 and 12 kWh ? 2 Which of the three probability density functions shown below can be the law of Y ? Justify. 3 The occupants of the house consume on average 10 kWh per day (excluding heating and hot water) . a What is the probability (to within 10 3 ) that the pan-els’ daily output exceeds average daily consumption? b What would this family’s average daily consumption have to be, in kWh , for this probability to be approx-imately 90 % ? We’ll round the answer to the tenth. E.8087 1 Let X be a random variable following the normal distri-bution N 20 ; 25 , i.e. its expectation equals 20 and its standard deviation equals 5 . a Give the value of the numbers a and b so that the ran-dom variable Z defined by: Z = X a b follows the centered and reduced normal distribution. b Calculate to the nearest 10 3 : P X 28) ; P X > 28) ; P X =28) P X 28) ; P 12 <x< 28) ; P 15 <x< 25) c Determine, to the nearest unit, the number ¸ such that : P X<¸ ) = 0.99 d Determine, to the nearest unit, the number ˛ such that : P 20 ˛<X< 20 + ˛ ) = 0.95 2 Let Y be such that Y follows N m ; 4 . Calculate m to the nearest 0.1 so that : P Y > 25 =0.95 3 Let T be such that T follows N 20 ; 2 . Calculate to the nearest unit so that : P 0 <T< 40 =0.99 6. Newton’s binomial formula https://chingmath.fr chapExoCorrec/8084 sacados/8084 chapExoCorrec/8085 sacados/8085 chapExoCorrec/8086 sacados/8086 02468101214161820C2C1C3 chapExoCorrec/8087 sacados/8087
E.8559 Let n be a non-zero natural number: 1 Establish equality: n k =1 k · n k = n · 2 n 1 2 Deduce the equality: n k =1 k 1 · n k = n · 2 n 1 2 n https://chingmath.fr chapExoCorrec/8559 sacados/8559